FXUS66 KSTO 082207
AFDSTO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
307 PM PDT Wed May 8 2024
SYNOPSIS...
Gusty north to east winds continue into Thursday. Widespread
Valley highs in the 90s Friday into week.
.DISCUSSION
...
Higher pressure ridging over the Pacific Northwest combined with
low pressure over the Great Basin and Rocky Mountains is bringing
a strong northerly surface pressure gradient to the area. Winds in
the Valley today have been gusting to 35 to 45 mph, with a Wind
Advisory remaining in effect through Thursday, 8 am. Some peak gusts
in the area over the past 24 hours include 46 mph at Sacramento
International Airport, 41 mph at Sacramento Executive Airport, 35
mph at Lincoln Airport, 36 mph at Redding Airport, and 31 mph
Stockton. Winds in the Valley should peak by later this afternoon
and early evening. Lighter northerly winds are expected during the
Day Thursday. Strong northeasterly to easterly winds have also
been evident in the mountains today, with widespread gusts 45 to
60 mph over peaks. A Wind Advisory continues until 11 am Thursday
for the mountains and the northeast foothills. Winds there are
expected to peak overnight tonight and then gradually decrease
through the day as the pressure gradient decreases.
Temperatures are 3 to 7 degrees warmer than yesterday, with Valley
temperatures generally in the mid to upper 70s at 2 pm. Highs
today are expected to peak around 80.
A gradual warming trend will occur through the week into the
weekend as ridging builds over the Pacific Northwest. High temperatures
reach 10 to 15 degrees above normal Friday and Saturday, as
Valley highs climb into the low 90`s. This will bring brief
periods of moderate heat risk during the afternoon hours. A Delta
Breeze will bring some slight cooling on Sunday into influenced
areas, including the Sacramento metro area.low
Dry weather is expected for most of the area, though the low will
retrograde (move west) Thursday night and Friday. This will bring
some instability and moisture over the central Sierra. Some Friday
afternoon showers and thunderstorms are possible over the Sierra
Crest south of Highway 50.
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION
(Sunday THROUGH Wednesday)...
Clusters and ensembles continue to show ridging as the dominant
forecast feature through the extended, continuing our stretch of
above normal temperatures and generally dry weather. Clusters show
some uncertainty regarding the amplitude (strength) of the ridge
in the Pacific creating a larger range of possibilities for
afternoon temperatures next week. The NBM reflects this high
temperature uncertainty, with spread of 10-14 degrees mid to late
week, making exact forecast details uncertain at this point. The
current forecast has afternoon high in the upper 80s to mid 90s in
the Valley with mainly 70s and 80s for the mountains and
foothills.
Dry weather continues across the area next week except for a
slight chance of Monday afternoon showers and thunderstorms are
possible over the Sierra Crest south of Highway 50.
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