FXUS66 KSTO 212126
AFDSTO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
126 PM PST Fri Feb 21 2025
SYNOPSIS...
Weak system brings light showers and breezy southerly winds to
the Sacramento Valley, foothills and mountains Sunday and Monday.
Dry weather and above-normal temperatures then prevail next week.
.DISCUSSION
...
Current GOES-West visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear
skies across interior northern California early on this Friday
afternoon. The north to east winds continue to decrease and
lighter winds are currently being observed, valid at 130 PM PST.
Temperatures are currently in the 60s to near 70 in the Valley
and lower foothills, and in the 40s to 60s in the upper foothills
mountains. Dry and warming weather will continue today and
Saturday as upper level ridging continues to develop over the
region.
A weak weather system passing over the Pacific Northwest will
bring a few showers to the Sacramento Valley, foothills and
mountains, mainly on Sunday, with some lingering showers over
Shasta County on Monday. Latest guidance from WPC has trended
slightly higher and suggests total precipitation amounts of a few
hundredths of an inch to a quarter of an inch over much of the
aforementioned areas, with higher amounts of 0.25 to 1.5 inches
in Shasta County. Slick road conditions will be possible at times,
mainly for areas north of Interstate 80. Some locally breezy
southerly winds will accompany this system on Monday with some
gusts of 20 to 30 mph, mainly in the northern/central Sacramento
Valley, adjacent foothills and Sierra Crest.
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION
(Tuesday THROUGH Friday)...
Cluster analysis and ensemble guidance continue to support warm
and dry conditions next week under upper level ridging. Daytime
high temperatures will be trending above normal for late February
/ early March climatology, in the 60s to 70s in the Valley and
foothills and 50s to 60s in the mountains. The NBM shows a 55 to
85 percent probability of high temperatures exceeding 70 degrees F
throughout the lower elevations over the extended forecast
period. There is also a 20 to 40 percent probability of
temperatures exceeding 80 degrees F mid to late next week across
portions of the northern/central Sacramento Valley. Light winds
are generally expected with the exception of occasional periods of
breezy north to east/downslope winds at times.
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