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Northern CA Forecast Discussion
FXUS66 KSTO 292030 AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
130 PM PDT Tue Jul 29 2025

SYNOPSIS...
Chances for afternoon and evening mountain thunderstorms this week, with the highest chances overnight tonight through Wednesday evening along the Sierra/southern Cascades and northeast foothills. Otherwise, near normal temperatures expected this week as periodically breezy onshore winds persist.


.KEY MESSAGES... * Today-Thursday: - Isolated thunderstorm chances around 10% along Sierra crest this afternoon/evening. Thunderstorm chances then increase to 15-30% overnight through Wednesday evening with highest chances expected along the Sierra/southern Cascades and into the northeast foothills. - Decreasing thunderstorm chances around 10% across Shasta County mountains for Thursday afternoon/evening. - Main storm hazards include lightning, brief heavy rain, gusty winds, small hail, and possible fire starts. - Elevated fire weather conditions are expected in the mountains due to the lightning threat and any strikes outside the main precipitation core will pose the threat for fire starts. - Afternoon highs in the 80s and 90s throughout the Valley as high temperatures remain seasonable. - Periodically breezy onshore flow expected during the afternoons and evenings. * Friday-Next Weekend: - Isolated mountain thunderstorm chances less than 10% through the weekend. - Periodically breezy onshore flow persists, with a slight uptick in wind speed possible by Sunday. Probability of south to west wind gusts > 30 mph on Sunday: 30-50% - Near to slightly below normal temperatures expected to continue. .Changes from previous forecast... - Isolated to scattered mountain thunderstorms across the Sierra/southern Cascades and northeast foothills overnight tonight into Wednesday morning and again Wednesday afternoon/evening.






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