FXUS66 KSTO 292030
AFDSTO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
130 PM PDT Tue Jul 29 2025
SYNOPSIS...
Chances for afternoon and evening mountain thunderstorms this
week, with the highest chances overnight tonight through Wednesday
evening along the Sierra/southern Cascades and northeast
foothills. Otherwise, near normal temperatures expected this week
as periodically breezy onshore winds persist.
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Today-Thursday:
- Isolated thunderstorm chances around 10% along Sierra crest
this afternoon/evening. Thunderstorm chances then increase to
15-30% overnight through Wednesday evening with highest
chances expected along the Sierra/southern Cascades and into
the northeast foothills.
- Decreasing thunderstorm chances around 10% across Shasta County
mountains for Thursday afternoon/evening.
- Main storm hazards include lightning, brief heavy rain, gusty
winds, small hail, and possible fire starts.
- Elevated fire weather conditions are expected in the mountains
due to the lightning threat and any strikes outside the main
precipitation core will pose the threat for fire starts.
- Afternoon highs in the 80s and 90s throughout the Valley as
high temperatures remain seasonable.
- Periodically breezy onshore flow expected during the afternoons
and evenings.
* Friday-Next Weekend:
- Isolated mountain thunderstorm chances less than 10% through
the weekend.
- Periodically breezy onshore flow persists, with a slight uptick
in wind speed possible by Sunday. Probability of south to west
wind gusts > 30 mph on Sunday: 30-50%
- Near to slightly below normal temperatures expected to
continue.
.Changes from previous forecast...
- Isolated to scattered mountain thunderstorms across the
Sierra/southern Cascades and northeast foothills overnight
tonight into Wednesday morning and again Wednesday
afternoon/evening.
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