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Northern CA Forecast Discussion
FXUS66 KSTO 152104 AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
104 PM PST Sat Feb 15 2025

SYNOPSIS...
Aside from some light showers north of Interstate 80 throughout the day on Sunday, dry and warming weather with occasionally breezy winds is expected into next week. Additional light precipitation chances possible across the middle of the week, with a trend toward unseasonably warm weather then moving toward next weekend.


.DISCUSSION

... Amplified, yet transient, ridging aloft is expected across interior NorCal today before a similarly quick moving shortwave trough travels across the Pacific Northwest on Sunday. Despite the ridging aloft, partly to mostly cloudy skies associated with the approaching trough will keep high temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s throughout the Delta, Valley, and foothills, with 40s to 50s at higher elevations today. This cloud cover and attendant increasing precipitation chances into Sunday will keep lower elevation low temperatures in the lower 40s while 20s to mid 30s prevail at higher elevations. As far as temperatures go, highs for Sunday are expected to remain similarly seasonable, with a potential degree or two upward trend from Interstate 80 southward, where precipitation chances will remain notably lower amidst weak warm air advection. While precipitation chances are expected for most locations north of Interstate 80, overall light precipitation totals are anticipated as the center of the shortwave remains displaced further northward. Precipitation totals of 0.1 to 0.25 inches are expected, with highest totals at high elevations. Current probabilities of exceeding 0.25 inches of precipitation sit around 5 to 15 percent for the aforementioned areas, with some 30 to 50 percent probabilities for far northern Shasta County. Snow levels around 5000 to 6000 feet on Sunday will keep appreciable accumulations confined to high elevations. With generally a dusting possible down to 5000 feet, and 1 to 3 inches of snowfall above 6000 feet. As quickly as this system arrives, it is expected to eject out of the region by midday Monday, leaving generally dry and warming weather and occasionally breezy northerly winds in its wake moving into the early week ahead. Similarly seasonable high temperatures look to prevail into Monday, with a more notable warming trend to the low to mid 60s across the Delta and Valley by Tuesday afternoon as another transient ridge builds in. Even at their breeziest, northerly wind gusts on Monday and Tuesday are only expected to top out around 15 to 20 mph as well.


.EXTENDED DISCUSSION

(Wednesday THROUGH Saturday)... Yet another quick moving shortwave around the midweek period will further stymie any persistent warming trend until later in the week. Current ensemble trends indicate that this trough will take a slightly further southward trajectory as it progresses. If this trend holds, attendant precipitation impacts would follow suit. Precipitation totals will likely fluctuate as a function of the trajectory ("heavier" precipitation with southward trend, lighter precipitation with northward trend), the quick moving nature of the shortwave will keep precipitation totals still relatively light. Resultant probabilities of exceeding 0.25 inches of liquid precipitation sit around 5 to 15 percent for most Delta, Valley, and foothills locations, with 40 to 60 percent probabilities along the Sierra and northern Sacramento Valley. A further southward trajectory would also yield breezier northerly winds behind the system, with some gusts up to 25 mph possible into Thursday. Following this midweek system, there is near uniform agreement in longwave, amplified ridging building in across the western CONUS through the end of the week and into the following weekend. Exact magnitude of the ridging aloft will determine the extent of heating in this pattern, but a warming trend is expected to accompany it regardless. While details will become clearer as the week progresses, probabilities of some readings into the 70s across the Delta, Valley, and foothills by Friday and Saturday sit around 40 to 60 percent at this time.






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