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Northern CA Forecast Discussion
FXUS66 KSTO 090833 AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
133 AM PDT Mon Sep 9 2024

Synopsis... Not quite as hot today, then a cool down into the mid to upper 80s through Thursday. Weather system moves through NorCal Wednesday bringing potential showers to the southern Cascades and northern Sierra. Breezy to gusty winds at times, especially on Wednesday and Thursday.


.Discussion... Clear skies and mild temperatures prevail around interior NorCal this morning. We can expect another day of slightly above normal high temperatures around the region, by 2-7 degrees in most locations. Upper level ridging is expected to begin breaking down over the area as me move through Monday, which will lead to cooler high temperatures to begin on Tuesday. With offshore troughing set to develop, onshore flow will be enhanced today and lead to locally breezy conditions at times. Coupled with lower humidity values, elevated fire weather conditions will continue throughout the day. On Tuesday and Wednesday, troughing will continue to build in over the PacNW and move closer to coastal California. The increased onshore flow will help increase relative humidity values across the area as well. High temperatures will begin to fall in response to the troughing and onshore flow, with the National Blend of Models (NBM) showing roughly 60-90% chances of high temperatures not reaching 90F Tuesday, however temperatures will likely hit 90 or higher in the northern Sac Valley (only a 20-40% probability of less than 90F for Redding/Red Bluff). Wednesday, a closed low is projected to develop and move inland in the PacNW and dig southeast which will introduce a chance for showers for the far northern Sac Valley, southern Cascades, and northern Sierra (best chances north of I-80, around 15-30% probabilities). Moisture with the closed low looks to be minimal for our area, as the EC shows very limited precipitable water content and the Valley likely getting shadowed from any significant precipitation. The NBM having around a 10% chance of of total rainfall exceeding 0.10 inches in the aforementioned areas. Breezy to gusty westerly winds are also expected Wednesday with wind gusts up to 25 mph or greater across the area. Thursday, the low will continue to move into the Rockies and transition our winds into a northerly pattern throughout the day. The NBM is projecting northerly wind gusts up to 30 mph, mainly along the I-5 corridor and adjacent foothills (north of I-80 into Redding). High temperatures will continue to be cooler than normal for the second week of September. Highs will look to remain in the mid to upper 80s for the Valley, cooler 70s for the foothills, and upper 60s to low 70s for the higher elevations in the Sierra.


.EXTENDED DISCUSSION

(Friday THROUGH Monday)... Drier weather Thursday as 560 DM upper low pushes into the Intermountain West. Below normal high temperatures continue across the CWA Thursday with mid to upper 80s forecast in the Central Valley with 50s to 70s for the mountains and foothills. Some locally gusty wind continues Thursday. Weak upper ridging moves through Friday with minor warming of the AMS to near normal. Upper troughing then deepens over NorCal over the weekend with synoptic cooling into Monday and some areas of gusty wind. Models differ with progression of next short wave trough through CA. NBM showing some light precip possible mainly over the mountains Sunday into Monday.






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