401
FXUS66 KSTO 051937
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1237 PM PDT Sun Apr 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Dry and warm weather expected into early next week with Minor
   HeatRisk.

 - Cooler temperatures and unsettled weather mid to late next week
   with rain and thunderstorms expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...Today through Wednesday...
Above normal temperatures and dry conditions are anticipated
across the region into early next week as ridging remains in
place. Daytime highs will be 10-20 degrees above normal through
early next week, even though temperatures will trend cooler as we
head into midweek. High temperatures will be into low to mid 80s
in the Valley today through Monday, with Widespread Minor HeatRisk
in the Valley, Delta and foothills. Individuals should practice
heat safety and use caution and life jackets near cold area
waterways. Monday and Tuesday afternoon and evening depict some
Delta Breeze influence with gusts up to 15-20 MPH that should
moderate our heat impacts.

...Wednesday to Late Week...
Ensembles depict a troughing pattern developing across the area
by mid to late week, bringing cooler temperatures and unsettled
weather conditions. Recent trends have delayed the pattern change
with now the burnt of impacts becoming more Thursday-Friday.
Confidence is still low with this system but we saw improved
consistency across models compared to this time yesterday. Highest
chances for light precipitation appears to be over the northern
Sacramento Valley, foothills, and mountains, with the latest NBM
highlighting a 50-75% chance of precipitation greater than 0.50
inches, highest over the Sierra.

NBM probabilities indicate the potential for thunderstorms each
day from Wednesday to Saturday with 10-20% for Wednesday and
Saturday and 20-35% on Thursday and Friday. Stay tuned for updates
as the forecast continues to evolve and can better dial in
specific thunderstorm impacts and possibilities.

&&
.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are forecast to prevail over interior northern
California over the next 24 hours. Surface winds generally
at/below 12 kt in the Valley; locally speeds in the mountains.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$